Project summaries
The New Policy Institute has produced its third annual report of indicators of poverty and social exclusion. The data is the most comprehensive and up-to-date available, with the latest year being 1999 or 2000 depending on data availability.
The report is the third in an annual series, Monitoring poverty and social exclusion, with the indicators updated for an extra year's data. In most cases the latest data is either 2000 or late 1999, the main exception being the data on income distribution for which the latest statistics are 1998/99.
Whilst income is the focus of many of the indicators, they also cover a wide range of other subjects including health, education, work, and community. As in previous years, the indicators are grouped into six chapters, with the four central chapters dividing the population by age (children, young adults, adults and older people), an initial chapter on income and a final chapter on communities.
| Indicator | Trend | |
|---|---|---|
| Over the medium term | Over latest year | |
| Income | ||
| 1. Gap between low and median income | Steady | Steady |
| 2. Individuals with low income (below 50% of average income) | Worsened | Steady |
| 3. Intensity of low income (below 40% of average income) | Worsened | Worsened |
| 4. In receipt of means-tested benefit (working-age only) | Improved | Improved |
| 5. Long-term recipients of benefits (all ages) | Improved | Improved |
| 6. Periods of low income (at least 2 years in 3 on a low income) | Steady | Steady |
| 7. The location of low income | N/A | N/A |
| Children | ||
| 8. Children in workless households | Improved | Improved |
| 9. Children in low-income households | Worsened | Steady |
| 10. Low birthweight babies (%) | Steady | Worsened |
| 11. Accidental deaths | Improved | Improved |
| 12. Pupils gaining no GCSE above grade D | Improved | Improved |
| 13. Permanently excluded from school | Worsened | Improved |
| 14. Children whose parents divorce | Improved | Steady |
| 15. Births to girls conceiving under age 16 | Steady | Improved |
| 16. Children (10-16) in young offenders institutions | Worsened | Worsened |
| Young adults | ||
| 17. Unemployed (16-24) | Improved | Steady |
| 18. On low rates of pay (16-24) | Steady | Steady |
| 19. Not in education, training or work (16-18) | Steady | Improved |
| 20. Problem drug use (15-24) | Worsened | Worsened |
| 21. Suicide (15-24) | Steady | Steady |
| 22. Without a basic qualification (19-year-olds) | Improved | Steady |
| 23. With a criminal record (18-20) | Steady | Steady |
| Adults aged 25 to retirement | ||
| 24. Individuals without paid work who would like to have such work | Improved | Improved |
| 25. Households without work for two years or more | Steady | Steady |
| 26. On low rates of pay | Steady | Steady |
| 27. Insecure at work | Steady | Improved |
| 28. Without access to training | Steady | Steady |
| 29. Comparative premature death rates | Worsened | Steady |
| 30. Obesity | Worsened | Worsened |
| 31. Long-standing illness or disability | Steady | Improved |
| 32. Mental health | Steady | Steady |
| Older people | ||
| 33. Pensioners with no private income | Worsened | Worsened |
| 34. Spending on essentials | Steady | Steady |
| 35. Excess winter deaths | Steady | Worsened |
| 36. Long-standing illness or disability | Steady | Improved |
| 37. Anxiety | Steady | Steady |
| 38. Help from social services to live at home (%) | Worsened | Worsened |
| 39. Without a telephone | Improved | Improved |
| Community | ||
| 40. Non-participation in civic organisations | Improved | Steady |
| 41. Polarisation of work (%) | Steady | Steady |
| 42. Spending on travel | Steady | Steady |
| 43. Lacking a bank or building society account | Steady | Steady |
| 44. Burglary | Improved | Improved |
| 45. Without household insurance | N/A | Steady |
| 46. Dissatisfaction with local area (%) | Steady | Steady |
| 47. Without central heating | Improved | Improved |
| 48. Overcrowding | Improved | Improved |
| 49. Households in temporary accommodation | Worsened | Worsened |
| 50. Mortgage arrears | Improved | Improved |
The following is a summary of the findings in the report.
According to the latest official statistics - for the year April 1998 to March 1999, released in July 2000 - the number of people living in households with below half average income, after housing costs, was 14 1/4 million in 1998/99. Although only slightly up since 1996/97, this number is a million more than in the early 1990s, and more than double the number of the early 1980s (see Figure 1).
Looking at the very poorest, 8 3/4 million people were in households with less than 40 per cent of average income. This is half a million higher than in 1996/97 and four times the level of the early 1980s.
Looking at a fixed threshold, the number of people below half 1994/95 average income, uprated only by inflation, fell by 2 million in the period to 1998/99.
Whilst all these figures relate to before the national minimum wage, the working families tax credit and the minimum income guarantee for pensioners came into effect, they clearly re-emphasise the scale of the challenge facing the government in developing its strategy to tackle poverty.
In contrast to the trends for low income, the total number of working-age claimants of means-tested benefit has been falling since the mid-1990s. Around one-third of working-age claimants have disabilities or are long-term sick, as are nearly half of working-age long-term claimants.
As of 1998/99, there was no reduction in the numbers of poor children: there were 4 1/2 million children in households with below half average income after housing costs. This represents a threefold rise over the last twenty years. Around 2 million children live in households where there is no adult in paid work.
There have been improvements in most of the education indicators. The proportion of 11-year-olds failing to achieve level 4 or above at key stage 2 in English and maths has fallen by a quarter since 1996, and these improvements have been shared across all types of school (see Figure 2). GCSEs show a similar pattern. School exclusions also fell sharply in 1998/99, with proportionally greater falls amongst children from minority ethnic groups. But serious problems still remain: 150,000 pupils each year still fail to obtain any GCSEs above grade D and exclusion is still over four times as common for Black Caribbean pupils as for white pupils.
Some of the health indicators have improved over time: the numbers of accidental deaths have fallen continually over the last decade, and the number of births to girls conceiving before their 16th birthday now appears to be falling. But the differences between social classes remain striking: children in the manual social classes are twice as likely to die in an accident as those in the non-manual classes, and girls in the manual social classes are around five times as likely to become mothers in their teens as those in the non-manual classes. There are also significant differences in the incidence of low birthweight in babies across social classes.
Large numbers of young adults are economically vulnerable. Official statistics suggest that around half a million young adults aged 16 to 24 are unemployed, which is more than double the unemployment rate for all ages (see Figure 3), and that around a million are paid at a rate less than half of male median hourly earnings. It therefore appears that more than a third of economically active 16- to 24-year-olds are either unemployed or on low pay. In contrast, the number of 19-year-olds without a basic educational qualification has reduced by a third since 1993.
Substantial numbers in their late teens are particularly vulnerable. In 1999, at any given time, around 150,000 young adults aged 16 to 18 were not in education, in training or in work. And 60,000 18- to 20-year-olds had a criminal record.
The suicide rate amongst 15- to 24-year-olds was around 10 per 100,000 in 1999, similar to a decade ago, but an increasing number of young people are being treated for problem drug use.
Four million adults would like to have paid work but do not, down from 5 million in 1993. This fall is slower than that in the official unemployment statistics because of a rise in the numbers of 'economically inactive' people. Almost half of all lone parents did not have paid work in 2000, compared with one in twenty couple households with children. Black and Bangladeshi people are twice as likely to be excluded from work compared with the white population.
After rising in the first half of the 1990s, levels of insecure employment have now stabilised, in terms of both the numbers on temporary contracts and repeat claims for Jobseeker's Allowance. But, amongst those in work, those without qualifications are still three times less likely to receive work-related training as those with qualifications.
The number of premature deaths (i.e. those before 65 years of age) continues to fall, but at different rates in different areas: the number of local authority areas with mortality rates which are significantly above average has grown by a half since 1995, with a quarter of all of these authorities being in Scotland (see Figure 4).
Other health indicators illustrate significant health inequalities. Women from the manual social classes are one and a half times as likely to be obese as women from the non-manual classes. Unskilled manual workers are one and half times as likely to have a long-standing illness or disability as those in the professional classes. And the poorest two-fifths of the population are one and a half times as likely to be at risk of a mental illness than the richest two-fifths.
Apart from the core subject of income levels, there is a lack of clarity about what poverty and social exclusion means for older people.
One and a half million pensioners are totally reliant on the state pension and benefits. But the proportion of pensioners on low incomes differs according to both age and marital status: there are proportionally fewer poor younger pensioner couples (see Figure 5).
Fewer pensioners are getting any help from social services: down 30 per cent between 1993 and 1999. County councils and unitary authorities support far fewer pensioners than English urban or Welsh authorities. The poorest are almost twice as likely to live in badly insulated housing as the best off pensioners.
There have been improvements in most of the housing indicators. Levels of overcrowding have almost halved in the last decade, the numbers of low-income households without central heating has reduced by a third over the last five years, and the number of mortgage holders in serious arrears continues to fall. But these overall improvements mask some growing differences between different types of tenure: overcrowding in the social rented sector is now three times the level for those with a mortgage, the proportion of households in the private rented sector without central heating is now three times that of the other sectors, and the number of households in temporary accommodation continues to rise sharply.
Significant and persistent inequalities remain in other areas. Throughout the 1990s, around two-thirds of heads of households in social housing did not have paid work compared with one-third in other tenures. Three-quarters are on weekly incomes of less than £200 compared with one-quarter of residents in other tenures. Lone parents and households with an unemployed head are twice as likely to get burgled as the average, and much less likely to have any household insurance. And one in six of the poorest households do not have any type of bank or building society account, compared with one in twenty households on average incomes (see Figure 6).
The study has involved drawing together data from a wide range of sources, including government-funded surveys, some administrative data and some local and health authority returns. The work has only been possible due to the co-operation of civil servants (particularly statisticians) across government.
