http://www.npi.org.ukNew Policy Institute - News FeedToday we published a report with Unison showing that people working in local government are far from the stereotypical overpaid bureaucrats. They are often the lowest paid and doing the most valuable jobs. Our report looks in depth at the make up of the local government workforce. What is essentialhttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/working-in-local-government-high-value-jobs-with-low-reward/22/02/2012 09:58:24Hannah Aldridge New figures show that the number of English households in private rented accommodation has risen by almost 50% in five years. There are now almost as many households in private rented as social rented accommodation, a huge change compared to even a decade ago. The English Housing Survey Bulletinhttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/the-rise-and-rise-of-private-renting/09/02/2012 12:06:13Hannah AldridgeRecent figures from the Department for Education showed that over 100 schools in England fell below the expected standard for GCSE attainment. Many of these schools have high proportions of disadvantaged pupils, and many more such schools are just above the floor standard. The Department forhttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/are-failing-schools-a-poverty-issue/02/02/2012 16:07:14Tom MacInnesThe latest Labour Market Statistics show a large rise in self employment. This is an intensification of a long term, worrying trend. Today’s labour market statistics contained a lot of bad news. Unemployment is up, to 2.64m. Youth unemployment remains above 1 million. 67,000 jobs have beenhttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/self-employment/14/12/2011 12:23:45Tom MacInnesGeorge Osborne's claims on public sector pay in the Autumn statement do not stand up to scrutiny. In his statement to parliament on 29 November, George Osborne said the following: “We will set public sector pay awards at an average of 1% for each of the two years after the pay freezehttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/was-osborne-right-on-public-sector-pay/02/12/2011 16:09:25Peter KenwayOur latest Monitoring Poverty and Social Exclusion Report shows that the Government’s anti poverty strategy cannot succeed without the creation of millions of jobs. Worryingly, the Chancellor’s autumn statement shows that the economy is heading in the opposite direction Today saw thehttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/new-national-report-on-poverty/01/12/2011 13:14:40Hannah Aldridge and Tom MacInnesBack in October, the text of the Prime Minister’s speech to the Conservative party conference called upon households to pay off their credit card debts . By the time he came to deliver the speech just hours later, strong criticism of the call had caused him to back away. Yet the latest direhttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/bad-news---households-are-paying-off-their-credit-card-bills/30/11/2011 15:35:50Peter KenwayIn research published today, NPI updated our estimate of the number of vulnerable  households eligible for free insulation under the Carbon Emissions Reduction Target (CERT) scheme. Some 3.5m vulnerable housheolds are eligible this year, the last for which this particular scheme will be inhttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/home-heat-helpline/22/11/2011 11:37:00Tom MacInnesNew research from the CRESR estimates that 1 million people will be forced to find work due to changes to incapacity benefits.  In a labour market short of several million jobs, these will increase poverty yet further. Moreover, they are fundamentally unfair.   Incapacity benefits, inhttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/unfair-changes-to-employment-and-support-allowance/15/11/2011 16:10:06Anushree Parekh and Hannah AldridgeThe Low Review of the proposed withdrawal of DLA mobility from care home residents is a sharp reminder that disabled people have the same mobility needs as anyone else. Chaired by crossbench peer Lord Low of Dalston, the Review (on whose steering group I had the privilege of serving) whose reporthttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/disability-and-mobility/03/11/2011 09:52:13Peter KenwayNPI's new analysis of the Government’s consultation document on council tax benefit shows that English local authorities will either have to absorb the CTB cut themselves or tax the poor. Any new scheme will have to be complex. And local authorities rather than the Treasury will in future behttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/poisoned-chalice-for-local-government/24/10/2011 16:27:59Peter KenwayWe launched our third London’s Poverty Profile report today. It looks at a range of indicators of poverty and disadvantage, from low income to ill health, covering housing, education and employment along the way. The report shows that, for some indicators, London mirrors national trends, evenhttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/londons-poverty-profile/20/10/2011 16:59:04Anushree ParekhIn a recent interview with BBC's Oliver Hides, NPI's Peter Kenway discusses the grossly inadequate social security benefits for working-age adults and how current proposals for welfare reform will do nothing to change that. Audio courtesy of BBC Radio Wales. Peter Kenway of NPI on Good Morning Wales,http://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/coping-on-80-pound-a-week/11/10/2011 16:46:51Peter KenwayPoverty forecasting is a dodgy business but if it must be done, it is best it is done by someone both reputable and competent.  None fits this bill better than the IFS.  Even so, we will go badly wrong if we mistake a forecast for a prediction. The value in what the IFS has done does nothttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/duncan-smith-loses-war-on-poverty/11/10/2011 10:44:23Peter KenwayAnalysing the US sector balances shows not only a huge budget deficit but unprecedented and equally problematic corporate and overseas surpluses. The surpluses or deficits of a national economy’s four sectors – households, businesses, government and rest of the world – add up to zerohttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/united-states-sector-balances-over-five-decades/29/07/2011 17:01:40Anthony Lord and Peter KenwayNew research on the Minimum Income Standard shows the impossibility of attaining such a standard on current levels of means tested benefits. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation today published its latest Minimum Income Standard report. It shows how much it would cost a family in the UK to achieve ahttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/below-the-minimum/05/07/2011 17:50:29Tom MacInnesDoes the balance sheet recession experienced by Japan after its property bubble account for the rising UK corporate savings since the tech bubble burst in 2001?  At least until recently, the answer must be ‘no’. Japan and the balance-sheet recession The balance-sheet recessionhttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/the-balance-sheet-recession-hypothesis-and-the-uk/30/06/2011 17:56:28Teodor TodorovDoes the rise in corporate savings since 2001 reflect the fact that UK companies have been creating and acquiring assets abroad rather than creating them at home?  Whereas the latter is counted as expenditure (thereby lowering the corporate surplus all else equal), the former does not. The IMFhttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/the-relationship-between-the-corporate-surplus-and-nfc-domestic-investment-and-net-fdi-in-the-uk/23/06/2011 17:44:08Teodor TodorovThe most recent child poverty figures show the success of the previous government's approach. But it also shows the limits. The coalition has identified some weaknesses, but leaves fundamental problems unaddressed. The latest child poverty figures, for the year 2009/10 have been published. They relatehttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/falling-child-poverty-raises-questions/13/05/2011 17:00:36Tom MacInnesIf the public sector deficit is to come down, the other sectors’ surpluses must come down too, especially that of the corporate sector which is the biggest of them.  This is indeed what the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expects.  How, though, does it reach this conclusion? http://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/office-for-budget-responsibilitys-forecast/19/04/2011 11:36:05Peter KenwayWhat explanations have been offered for the UK’s large and long-standing corporate sector surplus, which seems at odds with the conventional economic view of corporations as borrowers not lenders/savers? The higher surplus can be accounted for in terms of lower dividends and investment amonghttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/some-possible-explanations-for-the-corporate-sector-surplus/12/04/2011 17:01:11Dominic MuirYesterday Education Secretary Michael Gove announced his plans for replacing the Educational Maintenance Allowance. While better than may have been expected, it still takes too narrow a view of who the poorest children are and in so doing introduces a disincentive for parents to find work. Thehttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/more-on-ema/29/03/2011 18:02:38Tom MacInnes As with the savings of individuals or households, the UK corporate sector surplus can be higher either because income is higher or because spending and other outgoings are lower.  In the case of companies, ‘income’ is mainly operating profit, ‘spending’ is mainlyhttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/what-accounts-for-the-growth-of-the-corporate-sector-surplus/29/03/2011 16:54:36Peter KenwayLast month parliament voted to scrap the Educational Maintenance Allowance (EMA). The coalition government wants to replace EMA with something more targeted. Yet EMA is better targeted, and cheaper, than other policies which are not being cut. Educational maintenance allowance (EMA) is paid directlyhttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/targeting-the-educational-maintenance-allowance/07/02/2011 15:01:40Tom MacInnesThe corporate sector surplus did not just emerge on the back of the recession but has instead been ever present since 2002.  While a temporary surplus is quite normal, a persistent one is sign of something seriously amiss. The starting point in more than the deficit was that economic policyhttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/chronic-corporate-sector-surplus/04/02/2011 18:17:27Peter KenwayOn the day when the commentators draw extreme conclusions from one quarter of highly provisional GDP data, we look back over 100 quarters to get a sense of the bigger picture. This long term performance of the UK economy is the background against which the analyses presented in these briefings arehttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/fame-the-musical/26/01/2011 13:59:39Peter KenwayAt more than 10 per cent of GDP, it is not surprising that all political parties accept that the UK’s public sector deficit must be substantially reduced. Based on what a household has to do if its spending exceeds its income, this just looks like common sense. In fact, however, it ishttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/more-than-the-deficit/25/01/2011 14:48:31Peter KenwayThe latest detailed GCSE results, published this week, received more attention than the figures normally do. These 2010 results emphasised a different measure from previous years, and included a new, complementary measure, the English Baccalaureate.  The new emphasis is a good idea. Thehttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/gcse-figures-and-the-english-bac/14/01/2011 16:02:36Tom MacInnesTo cut Council Tax Benefit by 10% risks damaging a very effective political safety valve.  Are Coalition politicians sure this is what they want in 2013? With some 5.8 million recipient households across Great Britain, Council Tax Benefit (CTB) is not just some minor part of the benefithttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/council-tax-benefit/13/01/2011 15:40:39Peter KenwayThe fall in child poverty in the first year of the recession shows how big an impact tax credits and benefits can make in the short term – while the rise and rise of in-work poverty shows their limitations as a long term strategy.  The delay in publishing low income statistics means that wehttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/monitoring-poverty-and-social-exclusion-uk-2010/07/12/2010 15:19:39Peter Kenway, Anushree Parekh and Tom MacInnesThose hoping that Frank Field would think the unthinkable in his report for the government on poverty and life chances must surely be disappointed. By placing such importance on the early years of childhood – the Foundation Years, as Field wants us to call them –http://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/frank-fields-report/07/12/2010 15:05:08Peter KenwayIn the last week, NPI have received four e-mails about consultations on or threats to the official data sources we use in our work. Two large surveys are under threat. Following a 17% cut in its budget, the Office for National Statistics is consulting on its future projects. These official, publiclyhttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/disappearing-data/07/12/2010 14:55:01Tom MacInnesThe following article was written for September edition of The House Magazine, to coincide with the Labour Party Conference.   LABOUR’S RECORD ON POVERTY AND INEQUALITY Looking back at New Labour’s record on poverty and inequality, one moment stands out as pivotal. Tonyhttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/labours-record-article/22/11/2010 16:33:07Tom MacInnesIn October, we sent a submission to the Independent Review on Poverty and Life Chances, led by Frank Field MP. The Review posed three questions: What constitutes child poverty in modern Britain? How can our measures of child poverty be reformed to better focus policy development andhttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/measuring-poverty/22/11/2010 16:12:40Tom MacInnesOur report for the Office of Fair Trading, examined the problems faced by low income households from a mainstream economics perspective.One of the most interesting things to emerge from Markets and Low Income Households, written with Europe Economics, is the importance of 'enabling' or 'gateway'http://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/do-markets-serve-the-poor-badly/11/11/2010 17:18:55Peter Kenway Whatever else has been driving the rise in 'welfare' spending, it is certainly not been any greater generosity in the benefits available to working-age adults.  To try to ensure that political debate around this aspect of the social security system is well-informed, this briefing paper, writtenhttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/working-age-welfare/11/11/2010 16:36:35Tom MacInnes'It suits politicians of all parties to claim that work is the route out of poverty, but the statistics suggest otherwise.'  See here for our immediate reaction to the latest official poverty statistics, published 20 Mayhttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/poverty-article-guardian-website/15/06/2010 15:12:17Peter KenwayLow paid workers who rely on public transport to get to work have been hit especially hard by the higher fares on London’s buses and tubes that came into effect at the start of the New Year. London’s bus and tube fares have just gone up by an average of 12.7% and 3.9% respectively. Yethttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/low-paid-londoners-bashed-by-bus-fair-rise/19/05/2010 11:08:07Tom MacInnes  All major political parties now accept that the public sector deficit must be cut and the growth in the debt brought under control. With total public spending as a share of GDP close to the 1975 record, and with current spending (excluding investment) at record levels now, all parties must alsohttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/shrinking-the-state/19/05/2010 10:45:31Peter kenway  Dynamic Benefits: towards welfare that works was published by the Centre for Social Justice in September 2009. At first sight, the ideas on which its based – that the benefit system needs to be simpler and fairer in order to reduce dependency and support positive behaviour – are hardhttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/dynamic-benefits/19/05/2010 10:42:16Peter KenwayAt first glance, the dispute in February among economists about how and when to cut the level of government borrowing, waged through letters to newspapers, seems to have had no decisive impact. The comfort that the Conservatives could take from the first letter to the Sunday Times, calling for fasterhttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/cutting-government-borrowing/30/03/2010 13:14:47Peter KenwayJanuary's figures for the number of people claiming Job Seeker’s Allowance (JSA) show small falls in both the total number of claimants and the number making a new claim. But the very high number of people who sign off from JSA without finding a job raises the question of how well this benefit ishttp://www.npi.org.uk/m-blog/view/why-a-falling-claimant-count-is-not-good-news/30/03/2010 12:41:26Tom MacInnes